Archive for November 2011

Friday Update-Snow For the Weekend

Posted: Friday, November 18, 2011 at 7:36 am
By: Brian Karstens
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We are still on track for a winter system this weekend in much of KELOLAND.   As of Friday morning, winter storm watches have been posted for much of western and northern KELOLAND.  Many of these will be updated to either advisories or warnings later today.


Low pressure in southern Wyoming and northern Colorado is forecast to strengthen tonight and tomorrow, with snow to the north of the low over western KELOLAND.  Snow will likely spread into parts of eastern KELOLAND after midnight.


The challenge tomorrow will be narrowing where the most intense band of snow develops.  It appears areas along and north of highway 14 have the best chance of picking up several inches of snow, with areas of blowing snow developing through the day with north winds at 20-35mph.



The low will be quickly exiting Saturday night, but northwest winds and falling temperatures will make for very cold weather into Sunday morning.



Snowfall totals still look heaviest in western KELOLAND, where 6+” may fall in the northern and eastern slopes of the Black Hills.  Amounts of 4-7″ will still be possible to Pierre, with an enhanced 3-6″ snowfall extending east through portions of northeastern KELOLAND.  There is expected to be a sharp decline in snow accumulation to the south of highway 14.  Sioux Falls will be in the trace to 2″ range, with most of the raw data suggesting an inch or less.


If you don’t like all this talk of winter weather, I have good news.  A major warming trend is on the way next week just in time for Thanksgiving with highs in the 40s and 50s.  The jet stream in retreating well to the north and the polar vortex over Alaska is forecast to remain stationary, which will act to funnel mild, Pacific Air into the northern plains.  I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some 60s late next week in spots where this weekend snow is light.  Stay tuned!


Snow on the way this weekend…

Posted: Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 8:07 am
By: Brian Karstens
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Weekend snow is still on the way…here’s a look at futurescan for Friday afternoon.  You can see the first areas of snow developing near the Wyoming border.



The snow will expand across western KELOLAND Friday night, while a narrow band of snow extends into central and northeastern KELOLAND along the midlevel front.


This storm system will also have gusty north-northeast winds during the day Saturday as low pressure takes a track to our south.


This storm will be a fast mover, ending the day over northern IA.  The fast movement of the storm will limit some of the snow potential.


Our snow forecast is calling for a general 2-5″ accumulation in the areas shaded in blue on the map below.  Sioux Falls will likely be in the trace to 2″ range, with a little freezing drizzle Saturday morning.  The Black Hills could get over 6″, especially in the northern hills where the upslope component to the wind will enhance snowfall totals.


This storm will deliver colder air on Sunday with highs just in the 20s in many areas and morning lows in the single digits and even colder wind chills.  The good news is, warmer weather is ahead next week with a big pattern change toward mild and dry weather next week toward the Thanksgiving Holiday.


Stay tuned for the latest on the track of this winter system.

First Snow of the Season…

Posted: Wednesday, November 16, 2011 at 8:18 am
By: Brian Karstens
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We are on track to see the first significant winter system of the season in KELOLAND.  It looks likely that snow will develop West River Friday night and spread north and east during the day Saturday.


The map above shows an area of low pressure that will develop in northern Colorado moving into the plains on Saturday.  Winds will be from the northeast, keeping temperatures cold enough for snow in much of the region.   It appears this system will be a fast-mover, so by Saturday night, the low will be located in northern Iowa or southern MN.  That fast movement of the storm will limit some of the potential for very heavy snow.

Saturday Night Snow

It does appear we will have a few inches of snow with this storm, mainly north of a Valentine, Chamberlain to Marshall line.  Sioux Falls could also get clipped by this system with enough snow to get the ground white.  We still have time to watch the exact track of the system change a bit, so stay tuned to future forecasts.  Right snow, the map below shows the most likely areas to get snowfall.


Did I mention it will be cold?  Lows Sunday morning will be in the single digits and wind chills well below zero.  Stay warm this weekend!