Archive for February 2007

Wednesday Afternoon Storm Update

Posted: Wednesday, February 28, 2007 at 2:20 pm
By: Administrator
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The first storm of the two part series continues to come to an end this evening and overnight.  Don’t expect a long break in the weather; the second one is right on the heels with A LOT of wind tied in with it!
As we continue to tally the snowfall amounts from this first storm, the highest amounts are coming in from south central and southeast KELOLAND from earlier today with emailed reports of over 8” in Mt Vernon, Ethan, Mitchell, and Parktson.  As the snow continues to fall in northeast KELOLAND this afternoon, we’ll continue to add to the amounts with locations receiving over 6”.
The second storm is set for tomorrow and Friday.  This one will carry plenty of wind and moisture.  In fact, some of the computer models are spitting out well over an inch of water with this one!  The locations to see the heaviest snow will be Minnesota and Iowa, these areas are under a BLIZZARD WATCH for Thursday morning through Friday morning.  Along with the heavy snow (in excess of a foot) in these areas, the winds will increase to 35-50 mph by Thursday afternoon and lead to widespread blowing snow and reduced visibilities to less than a quarter mile at times in MN and IA.  Cities included in the BLIZZARD WATCH are Marshall, Jackson, Worthington, Pipestone, Windom, Sibley, and Spirit Lake.  Eastern South Dakota is in a WINTER STORM WATCH for Thursday afternoon until Friday morning.  Though the snow amounts are not expected to be as high in South Dakota (areas up to 6” possible), winds will cause any snow to blow leading to reduced visibilities. 

2 Storms to Watch

Posted: Tuesday, February 27, 2007 at 12:24 pm
By: Administrator
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We have a number of weather issues on the plate today for discussion.  First is the batch of snow coming in tonight.  I think that’s the easy part.  We are forecasting a large 3-6” snowband across eastern, central, and northern SD, western MN, and extreme NW IA.  Winter storm warnings have been issued for Aberdeen, Watertown, and Huron…but the total water equivalent forecast is about the same for Sioux Falls.  Just plan on slow travel tomorrow morning with an east wind at 15-25 mph at times.  Freezing drizzle may develop behind the band of heavy snow…we are watching that for areas of west of Sioux Falls.
The biggest problem in the forecast is what to do with the second storm.  The first low will stall in western ND while the second rapidly develops in southern KS and moves northeast into IA…spreading a swath of heavy snow behind the low.  The interaction between the two is the tricky part and is never handled weather by numeric weather forecast models.  My theory is that there will be accumulating snow in SD and especially in MN and IA.  The new Canadian actually puts the heavy snow farther west…that’s very interesting.   The storm will likely stall in MN and the upper-level low spins up to the east.  That’s means we could get heavy wind and light snow into Friday.   NW winds could gust over 40 late Thursday and Friday…mostly west of Sioux Falls.  Sometimes that’s actually more of a concern than the actual snow.  Stay tuned….

Snow Totals

Posted: Sunday, February 25, 2007 at 3:56 pm
By: Administrator
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Here’s a quick list of early snow totals from last night and this morning…
WALL LAKE      5.0
GALVA       5.0
MARSHALL        9.0
JACKSON          5.0
LUVERNE     5.0
WINDOM      6.0
SHELDON     3.0
CANTON            5.3
TABOR       10.5
HORNICK     4.0
AKRON              7.5
HURON       4.1
WINNER      10.0-12.0
IDEAL       9.0
WOOD        8.0
MISSION          6.0
ROSEBUD     2.0

Storm Update – Sunday Morning

Posted: Sunday, February 25, 2007 at 9:00 am
By: Administrator
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It’s Sunday morning and we’re nearing the end of our latest snow storm with snow amounts of 8-12” in south central and extreme southeast South Dakota.  Amounts will also approach 8-12” in west central Minnesota.  Still wouldn’t be surprised for an additional 1-3” this morning in eastern KELOLAND before tapering to flurries and light snow showers later this afternoon.
Much of western South Dakota skipped out on this storm.  Here’s an email I received earlier this morning from Spearfish… Sunday, Feb. 25. At 6 a.m. sun starting to rise on a mostly clear sky. No wind, temperature a crisp 15 degrees. No measurable snowfall the last few days, most of the snow left from last weekend is gone. Beautiful morning.
Please feel free to continue to add snow amounts to the comments section…

Storm Update 3pm Saturday

Posted: Saturday, February 24, 2007 at 3:13 pm
By: Administrator
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Not much time with a lot going on, so I’ll try to make it short and sweet…
Winter weather will continue in east of the Missouri through the evening and overnight.  Snow amounts through early this afternoon:  4” Marshall, 4.5” Chamberlain, 1.5” Mitchell, and 1.5” in Brookings.  A lot of this fell from 8-10 this morning.  Please feel free to keep adding your snowfall totals to the ‘comments’ section.  Aberdeen, Watertown, Huron, Pierre, and Winner have had snow from late this morning into the afternoon.  Total snow amounts for these areas will still average 5-10” in the northeast, 4-8” in the central, and 6-12” in south central South Dakota.
Freezing rain was a problem for many in Minnesota and Iowa this morning, with ice accumulations between a quarter and a half inch before switching to snow around 9 or 10:00.  Snow will continue in these areas as well with some of the highest totals coming out of Minnesota where 6-12” will fall.
Southeast South Dakota will continue to see the sleet switch to snow this afternoon with snowfall rates of an inch an hour possible.  Adding to a total of 4-8” by Sunday evening.  
I’ve peeked at the Rapid City skycam about an hour ago and saw blue sky, but a shaking camera due to the strong winds gusting to 50 mph.  Winds will relax across the west this evening and overnight.
Also, I’m done with the extended forecast this afternoon, and would like to mention another round of rain and snow by Wednesday and Thursday.  Keep the snow blower gassed!

Storm Update-Saturday AM

Posted: Saturday, February 24, 2007 at 9:04 am
By: Administrator
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Well…it looks like the forecast is coming together pretty well.  The maps on the blog last night still apply to the general outlook for today.   Did anybody hear thunder this morning?  My wife and I did!  That proves we have a dynamic system moving through…one that will produce significant winter weather.  I noticed Spencer, Luverne, and Sheldon were reporting freezing rain or mixed precip as of 8am.  Sioux Falls is at 33-34 with light rain still…boy that’s close isn’t it.  I’m sure Scot will stay glued to the radar watching that trend.  Ice is going to be a big deal today east of SF…keep emailing us your reports please.  A half inch of ice isn’t out of the question in a few spots during the next 4-8 hours. 
The snow changeover still looks good.  The general QPF amounts on the computer models generate about .50”- to 1” of water that will be used for snow.  Using a 10:1 ratio…that generates about 5-10”.   Aberdeen could get toward the heavier end of that range.  I’m curious to see if some folks push up to 12” west of Sioux Falls out near the James and Missouri River Valleys too.  Blizzard warnings are out in northern Nebraska because of the wind…big wind with gusts to near 60.  Plus, all of us know how big of a deal wind can be when mixed with the snow.  I’m hoping the cattle ranchers make it through this OK.
Again, the blog I posted last night with the maps still looks good.   Let us know what’s going on at your location today…the reports are welcome.

Weather Update-5pm

Posted: Friday, February 23, 2007 at 5:29 pm
By: Administrator
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The weekend forecast is still looking messy.  Here’s the latest information.  We expect light rain to develop late tonight…mainly after 3am. The snow in the west will be very light.  This storm really won’t get going until after 3am.  However, a light mix is possible in the northeast where temperatures will fall below freezing during the overnight.The weather gets more interesting in the morning.  Snow will develop in the north and central…with areas of freezing rain east of Sioux Falls into Minnesota and extreme NW Iowa.  Be aware of that…travel problems will be likely in those areas.  Sioux Falls should be mostly rain showers…with the same for Yankton and Mitchell.Everyone should see the mixed precip change to snow during the afternoon.  It could become heavy at times near Winner.  Don’t expect heavy accumulation until after 3 or 4pm in the afternoon for areas in the southeast.Total accumulation for this system will be 4-8".  Isolated higher amounts are possible in areas of Minnesota in the purple and perhaps near Winner.  We are still watching those small-scale features and will have more later tonight.

Weather Update-1:30pm

Posted: Friday, February 23, 2007 at 1:16 pm
By: Administrator
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Here is the latest update on the weather.  I’ll highlight a few spots.Pierre-It looks like areas of light showers are possible late tonight, but the air will cool enough for all snow by mid to late morning.  Periods of snow are expected through the day…with accumulation of 4-8" by Sunday morning.  Then, the snow will diminsh.Winner-Same forecast at Pierre…only heavier amounts.  We could see a foot somewhere around Tripp County into northern Nebraska…according to the new GFS model.Yankton-Rainy Saturday AM…then snow by late afternoon.  4-8" looks like a good bet….but the changeover timing will determine if it’s 4 or 8.Sibley, IA-Light rain and freezing rain late tonight and morning.  Signifcant ice possible east to Spirit Lake-Worthington areas…and north to Marshall.  Maybe 1/2" of ice in this area.  Watch for updates.  Changeover to snow by mid to late afternoon.  Snowfall 4-8"Aberdeen-Mix starts late tonight and changed to snow Saturday mid morning.  Snowy Saturday PM….solid 4-8".  Brookings-Watertown-Rain-freezing rain in the morning…changing to snow in the PM.  Heaviest ice east toward Marshall.  Then, 4-8" of snow Saturday night and Sunday morning.More later today…

Weather Update 11am

Posted: Friday, February 23, 2007 at 10:48 am
By: Administrator
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Quick update…new models are in.  The NAM (another U.S. model) gives Sioux Falls 1/4" of ice and then 6 inches of snow.  Messy.The new GFS (American model) gives Sioux Falls about 1/2" of rain or freezing rain in the morning.  Then it gives us about 4-8" of snow in the afternoon through Sunday.  This agrees with the Canadian model…which is the model of choice here at KELO.  The forecast looks on track…more laterBK

Winter Storm Discussion

Posted: Thursday, February 22, 2007 at 4:25 pm
By: Administrator
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The winter storm we’ve been talking about all week is on it’s way.  Now, we have the details to discuss.  After looking at the European, American, and Canadian models, we’ve come up with general forecast for KELOLAND.  The map above shows the outline for Friday night.  A southeast wind will keep temperatures above freezing most of Friday, with the only exception being northeast KELOLAND…Aberdeen and Siseton.  I think those areas will have the best chance of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain.  We are basing this on the Canadian model temperatures.  If the GFS (American model) is correct, it will be colder and ice will happen in areas north of Sioux Falls.  We’ll watch it.  I’ll go with 33-35 degrees which equals rain.Saturday morning gets more interesting.  Cold air in the north will change everything over to Snow or freezing rain from near Watertown to Aberdeen.  Sioux Falls stays in the rain through the morning and we have that going north to Brookings and Sioux Falls.  Again, IF the the Amercian model is correct…more ice will develop north of Sioux Falls.  We are hedging slightly warmer with more showers to start…then freezing rain and snow becoming more widespread in the afternoon.By mid to late afternoon on Saturday, the mixed precip becomes all snow.  Winds will increase as the center of the low deepens in northeast Kansas (about 984 mb).  Snow could be heavy at times west of Sioux Falls…while rain may still be falling to the south of Yankton and Vermillion.  Saturday night…everything is snow.  ALL of the models cool the temperature below freezing through the lowest part of the atmosphere.  Snow could be heavy at times with snowfall rates heaviest east of the James River…perhaps an inch an hour.The total amounts of water with this system will be significant.  Most of the east will see an inch or more of rain/snow.  If everything was all snow…a foot or more would be possible in much of eastern KELOLAND.  However, we know some of it will be rain or freezing rain.  The west won’t get as much…so the drought continues.Here’s are latest snowfall projections.  Use this map as a guideline at this point…because we expect to make more adjustments as the storm draws closer.  Most of eastern KELOLAND would be in line for 4-8" in eastern SD…with heavier 6-12" in Minnesota.  After this passes…we get to do this again next week with another large storm.